Newburgh, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast (2024)

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 600 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front slides down from the north Friday into Friday night and stalls close by on Saturday. The front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with a cold front to follow on Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 201128 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 728 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front slides down from the north Friday into Friday night and stalls close by on Saturday.
The front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with a cold front to follow on Monday. High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast is mostly on track early this morning.

High pressure weakens a little over the region today. Most of the forecast area will be dry, but a pre-frontal trough with moisture convergence may help spark some showers/TSTMs across the northern zones. Any storms could produce a strong wind gust or small hail, but with weak shear, the threat of severe thresholds being met will be limited to just off to our north, but not completely out of the question over here.

The trough will also make it tough for dewpoints to mix out in its vicinity, so dewpoints across the northern zones will probably hover around 70 for a good portion of the day. Farther south, a somewhat drier boundary layer and lower surface dewpoints for the most part.
850mb temps at 18-20C, so ambient temperatures should be a little higher than yesterday's. Heat advisories for this period remain unchanged.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A cold front approaches on Friday, stalls over or near the forecast area late in the day into Friday night, then begins to retreat north as a warm front on Saturday. SBCAPES across the northern zones may increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. With lift from approaching front and subtle shortwaves aloft, showers and sct TSTMs will be likely across these zones in the afternoon and evening. PoPs capped at chance for now across the rest of the forecast area. While a little stronger than today, shear remains weak, but can't rule out a strong to severe wind gust north of the city.

Temperatures and dewpoints for Friday continue to present some challenges. It appears that the cold front and potential convection/associated clouds have been delayed by a few hours from what was progged 24 hours ago. This will give the northern zones a little more time to heat up, but there's discrepancy among the models regarding how hot it can get here beforehand. 850mb temps vary from as little as 16-17C to as high as 19-20C, with the higher values generally towards the west. Farther south, a little more confidence in the high temperature forecast. With the approaching front, dewpoints in the lower 70s across the northern zones and upper 60s for most the southern zones.

Regarding heat indices and advisories, there was enough confidence to extend the advisory for the Lower Hudson Valley as well as Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven Counties. Farther east in CT, temperatures probably not warm enough to support another day of widespread 95+ heat indices. And while indices of at least 95 might be widespread in NYC, parts of the north shore of LI, as well as Southern Westchester and Southern Fairfield Counties, it's not anticipated to be the case today, thus falling short of the 2-day criteria.

With the stalled front, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday night and Saturday, with generally higher chances across the northern zones. PWATs climb to around 2 inches in the vicinity of the front Friday through Saturday, and with a relatively weak steering flow, slow moving storms, potentially training along the cold front, introduce a chance of flash flooding. See the hydrology section below for more details.

High temperatures on Saturday should be cooler than Friday's, but this may continue to trend warmer with a more northerly stalling of the cold front. Heat advisories may need to be extended into Saturday, particularly across NE NJ.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
**Key Points**

* Hot and Humid on Sunday with showers and t-storms expected late Sunday into Sunday night.

* A cold front with showers and t-storms slides through Monday which breaks the high humidity and heat.

A warm front will lift north of the region early Sunday. A lead shortwave out ahead of the main trough / mid level shortwave is progged by most guidance to arrive during Sunday evening. This will lead to another round of showers and t-storms late Sunday into Sunday night.

Sunday appears to be the hottest and most humid day of the period with thickness ridging working in. The

gets purely into the warm sector and more of a SW flow. Heat index values will climb into the 90s for a good chunk of the area, with some 100 values in portions of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat index values likely remain in the 80s across eastern Long Island eastern/coastal CT.

A cold front moves across the area on Monday. Monday will remain unsettled, with showers likely along with the chances for thunderstorms. The front should clear the area Monday evening, and with that the humidity gradually falls into Tue AM. Look for a drier W to NW flow to begin Tuesday as high pressure works in from the west. It will only be a subtle air mass change with the humidity dropping some. The winds will likely shift more to the south late in the day with humidity levels rising again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with the eastward progression of upper level energy and the southern extent of a frontal boundary by late Wednesday into Thursday. Late day or evening convection is a possibility late Wed, but much, if not all of the day will be rain free. Rain chances continue into Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic through the

period.

VFR conditions expected. Winds will be S-SW through the

period.
Some gusts to 15-20 kt will be possible this afternoon into early evening but may only be occasional. Otherwise, sustained winds will be mainly near 5-10 kt during the

period.

The afternoon KEWR, KJFK, and KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)

Uncertainty...

Occasional wind gusts to 15-20kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday and Saturday: Mainly

. There is a chance for

or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.

Sunday and Monday: Mainly

. There is a chance for

or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, again mainly during afternoon/evening hours. For Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly

wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strengthening S flow due sea breeze circulations could push wind gusts occasionally to around 25kt nearshore across the NY Harbor and the westernmost ocean waters this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, conditions will remain below

levels through at least Saturday.

Small craft seas becoming increasingly likely Sunday and Sunday night along with marginal small craft gusts. Small craft conditions will likely linger into Monday for a good portion of the ocean waters, with sub small craft conditions likely continuing for the non-ocean waters.

Conditions fall below

levels on Tuesday, however can not rule out some lingering

seas Tuesday morning on the far eastern ocean.

HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday are expected to produce an average of a half inch to an inch of rainfall north of NYC, and lower amounts for NYC,

and NE NJ. There is a threat of higher amounts as the storms may redevelop along a stalled cold front and move slowly. There is therefore at least a low risk for localized flash flooding during this period, mainly north of the city, where the front will be stalled.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday and into a portion of Monday. The uncertainty remains high around potential hydrologic impacts for this time period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There will be a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches today through Friday with a S to SW wind wave.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures for today and Friday.

Thursday, June 20

NYC: 98(1923)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 98(2012)
ISP: 93(1995)
BDR: 93(1953)

Friday, June 21

NYC: 97(1988)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 97(2012)
EWR: 100(1953)
ISP: 95(2012)
BDR: 96(2012)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005-006.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ007-008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

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